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07/22/2010 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco's leadoff homer in the 11th inning provided the game-winning run, and the Philadelphia Phillies avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals with a 2-0 victory.
Polanco, a former Cardinal who finished with three hits on Thursday, crushed his sixth home run of the year and first since May 9 for the Phillies, who had lost six of seven to begin their second of half of the season. Ryan Howard also had three hits, while Jayson Werth added an RBI double in the win.
Cole Hamels was spectacular in the start, allowing just a hit and a walk in eight shutout innings. He faced 25 batters, one over the minimum, and has allowed one run in his last 22 2/3 innings over three starts. Chad Durbin (2- 1) earned the victory, while Brad Lidge recorded his eighth save.
Adam Wainwright extended his scoreless innings streak to 25 after giving up six hits while fanning six in six frames for the Cardinals, who had their eight-game win streak snapped. St. Louis advanced just one runner past first base for the duration of the game and had just three baserunners overall.
With Kyle McClellan (1-3) on to begin the 11th for St. Louis, Polanco hammered a 1-1 pitch into the left field seats to break the scoreless tie.
Two batters later, Trever Miller relieved McClellan and walked Raul Ibanez, which was followed by a Howard single. Fernando Salas came on to pitch to Werth, who sent an RBI double down the left field line for an insurance run.
Lidge pitched around a leadoff walk in the home half to polish off the win.
While Hamels was dominant, the Phillies squandered several chances to push a run across.
Two of the game's first three batters reached base, but Howard grounded into a fielder's choice before Werth struck out to end the threat.
Philadelphia stranded a runner on third in the second and runners on the corners in the fourth, and Wainwright settled down to face the minimum six batters in the fifth and sixth.
Meanwhile, Hamels didn't allow a baserunner until the fifth and faced the minimum 21 batters through the first seven innings. He yielded a two-out walk to Yadier Molina in the eighth, but recovered to strike out Brendan Ryan and keep the game scoreless.
The Phillies nearly scored in the eighth when Shane Victorino doubled with two away and moved to third when Matt Holliday couldn't handle the line drive in left, but Ibanez struck out to maintain the 0-0 tie.
Game Notes
Werth's RBI double was his first hit with runners in scoring position since June 24...The teams split the season series, 4-4...This was the first game Wainwright has started at home this season in which the Cardinals did not win. The team had been 10-0.
<< AP source: Hornets schedule meeting with Paul
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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