07/02/2009 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Todd Wellemeyer threw 7 1/3 innings to help the St. Louis Cardinals take a 5-2 win over the San Francisco Giants and split a four-game series.
Wellemeyer (7-7) scattered seven hits and two runs with a walk and six strikeouts for the Cardinals, who won the final two games of the series. Ryan Ludwick drove in two runs while Brendan Ryan scored twice.
Barry Zito (4-8) was tagged for all five runs on five hits with three walks and seven strikeouts in just 4 1/3 innings for the Giants, who have lost two straight on the heels of a three-game winning streak. Aaron Rowand hit a two- run homer to account for the offense.
The Cardinals got all the runs they needed in the opening inning. The first three batters reached safely to load the bases and Ludwick beat out an infield single to chase home Ryan. Yadier Molina then worked a walk to force home Skip Schumaker and Chris Duncan hit into a fielder's choice that scored Albert Pujols for a 3-0 lead.
San Francisco had baserunners in each of the first five innings, but only got a man to second twice, in the first and third innings.
St. Louis padded its lead in the fifth. With men on second and third, Schumaker grounded out to bring home Colby Rasmus. Later in the frame, an RBI single from Ludwick brought home Ryan for a 5-0 advantage.
The Giants got on the board in the eighth to spoil Wellemeyer's shutout bid. Pinch-hitter Nate Schierholtz led off with a single and Rowand followed with a shot that just cleared the wall in left for his ninth home run to make it a 5-2 game.
Ryan Franklin, though, shut down San Francisco in order in the ninth to grab his 19th save of the season.
Game Notes
St. Louis hits the road and starts a three-game set in Cincinnati on Friday...San Francisco returns home to start a three-game series in Houston on Friday...The Giants took four of the seven games against St. Louis this season and have won the series the past three seasons...Before the game, St. Louis agreed to terms with 16-year-old outfielder Wagner Mateo. He is considered to be the top amateur free agent on the market from Latin America this year.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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