08/21/2008 - Del Mar, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eleven of the best older thoroughbreds in training make up the field for Sunday's $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar. The winner of the 1 1/4 mile race gains an automatic spot in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic as part of the "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge.
Go Between, trained by Bill Mott, attempts to stop a three race streak in which he has finished second in each start. After winning the Sunshine Millions Classic in January he was the runner-up in the Santa Anita Handicap, the Ben Ali and the Hollywood Gold Cup.
Owned by Peter Vegso, the chestnut horse is the 3-1 morning-line favorite and will be ridden again by Garrett Gomez from the six-hole.
"The horse is doing excellent," said Kenny McCarthy who handles the Bill Mott string at Churchill Downs. "We gave him a couple of easy works after he came back from the Hollywood Park race and then put two sharp works into him."
The five-year-old has won seven of 25 lifetime starts with earnings of $2,183,880.
Here is the rest of the field for the 18th Pacific Classic: Student Council, Awesome Gem, Mast Track, McCann's Mojave, Well Armed, Surf Cat, Mostacolli Mort, Barcola, Delosvientos and Zappa. All horses will carry 124 pounds.
Defending Classic winner Student Council has won eight of 29 career starts for $1,547,731. His lone win this year came in the Pimlico Special and he is coming off a second to Commentator in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga.
It was announced on August 12 that Student Council will be retired at the conclusion of the 2008 racing season and enter stud in 2009. The six-year-old will stand at Millennium Farms, his current owner.
"His racing career has brought us much excitement," noted Millennium Farms owner Ro Parra. "And after a few more races this year, we are sure that the combination of his pedigree, conformation, soundness, toughness, durability and great race record will make him desirable to breeders around the world."
Well Armed, trained by Eoin Harty for WinStar Farms, took the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar in his most recent start. The gelding has career earnings just over $1 million with five wins in 17 career starts.
"Going the extra distance isn't optimal, but I think he can do it physically," said Harty. "After all, he's by Tiznow (double winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic). He has overcome a lot in his lifetime; the worst was a broken pelvis two years ago and Bill Casner (partner in WinStar Farm) rehabbed the horse himself. These people (WinStar) have sent me three Tiznows and they've all won major races. That's this horse, Colonel John and Tiz Now Tiz Then. What are the chances of that?"
The Pacific Classic will be broadcast on ESPN2 with a post-time set for 9:45 p.m. (et).
<< Bocanegra's header helps USA hold off Guatemala
Guatemala City, Guatemala (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Bocanegra scored in the
68th minute to help the United States down Guatemala, 1-0 at Mateo Flores on
Wednesday in a World Cup qualifier.
The USA is now 5-0-4 against Guatemala all-
<< Marlins SS Ramirez leaves game vs. Giants with hand injury
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins lost shortstop
Hanley Ramirez to a hand injury in Wednesday's game against the San Francisco
Giants.
Ramirez singled in the top of the third inning and stole second base. As he
slid
<< Metcalf homers twice, Millwood goes nine as Rangers rout Tigers
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Travis Metcalf homered twice, knocking in
three runs, and Kevin Millwood hurled nine strong innings, as Texas rolled
past Detroit, 9-1, in the final contest of a three-game series.
Brandon Boggs, Mich
<< LaRue, Cardinals rough up Pirates
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason LaRue hit a two-run homer, doubled
and finished with three runs batted in, as St. Louis blasted Pittsburgh, 11-2,
in the finale of a two-game set with the Pirates.
Rick Ankiel also had a two-run bl
Cardinals P Wainwright to return >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam
Wainwright is expected to return from the disabled list and start Friday
against the Atlanta Braves.
Wainwright has been on the DL since June 8 with a
Marlins SS Ramirez leaves game vs. Giants with thumb injury >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins lost shortstop
Hanley Ramirez to a thumb injury in Wednesday's 6-5 loss to the San Francisco
Giants.
Ramirez singled in the top of the third inning and stole second base. As
Hawpe's late hit helps Rockies edge error-prone Dodgers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Hawpe knocked in the go-ahead run in
top of the ninth inning, as the Colorado Rockies rallied past the Los Angeles
Dodgers, 4-3, in the middle test of a three-game series from Chavez Ravine.
Hawpe f
Molina's sac fly in ninth lifts Giants past Marlins >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bengie Molina had the game-winning
sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth inning, as the San Francisco Giants
held off a late rally by the Florida Marlins to win 6-5 in the middle
install
Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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