11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oddly enough, a Buffalo Bills team that started the year an impressive 5-1 already finds itself in what is effectively a must-win situation, and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.
The Bills, now 5-4 and watching the high ground erode all around them in the crowded AFC East, welcome the Cleveland Browns to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Monday night, and will be looking to serve as rude hosts.
Buffalo is mired in a three-game skid including consecutive losses to division foes the Dolphins (25-16), Jets (26-17), and Patriots (20-10).
An offense that was a credit to the team in the early-going has been sputtering more often that it has been efficient, and second-year quarterback Trent Edwards hasn't looked anything like the Pro Bowler he seemed close to becoming in September and early October.
Edwards has committed seven turnovers (five INT, two fumbles) and thrown just two touchdowns in the past three weeks, and Buffalo is now 24th in the league in total offense (303.8 yards per game) and 20th in scoring offense (21.3 points per game).
In last week's loss to New England, the Bills registered their lowest totals of the year in points (10), first downs (10) and yards (168).
Meanwhile, the generally stout Buffalo defense of the first six weeks has begun to crumble under the weight of injuries.
Top pass rusher Aaron Schobel has missed four straight games with a foot injury, and is not expected to be in the lineup on Monday night. Safety Donte Whitner (shoulder) is questionable for the Cleveland contest after missing last week's game, and his absence would further hamstring a secondary that lost cornerback Ashton Youboty (foot) for the season prior to the New England defeat.
The team the Bills will be trying to right the ship against is in even more dire straits.
Cleveland dropped to 3-6 with last Thursday's 34-30 home loss to the Broncos, putting the team's hopes of a first playoff berth since 2002 on life support.
Quarterback Brady Quinn was unable to engineer a win in his first NFL start, but did have some positive moments in a 23-of-35, 239-yard, two-touchdown passing performance.
Quinn will start his first road contest as a pro on Monday, and will need better help from a defense that several members of the Browns, including Jamal Lewis and Joshua Cribbs, publicly suggested didn't play with optimum effort versus Denver.
"When you have a team like that that comes into our house and we're capable of beating them, that's the first thing that comes to mind," Cribbs said in comments to ESPN.com. "We can't figure out what man, but that's what it looked like - some guys quit...We know if everybody didn't quit, we would have won that ballgame."
SERIES HISTORY
Cleveland holds a 8-5 advantage in its all-time regular season series with Buffalo, including a 8-0 home win played in driving snow in Week 15 of last season. Prior to that game, the Bills had won three straight in the series, including a 37-7 home win in the previous matchup in 2004. Cleveland last won in Buffalo in 1986.
In addition to their regular-season history, the franchises met in a 1989 AFC Divisional Playoff, won by Cleveland at home by a 34-30 count.
Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 1-1 in his career against the Browns, with the win coming for his Bears team in 2001. The Browns' Romeo Crennel is 1-0 against both Jauron and the Bills as a head coach.
WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL
While Quinn's performance against the Broncos was encouraging given his lack of experience, what it didn't include was a lot of downfield throwing against the beleaguered Denver secondary. No. 1 wideout and top deep threat Braylon Edwards (27 receptions, 3 TD) caught just one pass for 15 yards in the loss, with Quinn relying more on short routes to tight end Kellen Winslow (36 receptions, 3 TD), who had 10 catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns in what was his best game of the season to date. No. 2 receiver Donte' Stallworth (11 receptions, 1 TD) also contributed four receptions for 48 yards in the loss. The Cleveland running game has struggled for much of the year, with Jamal Lewis' (593 rushing yards, 4 TD, 15 receptions) 19-carry, 60-yard performance against a soft Broncos front seven offering more evidence of that fact. Change-of-pace rusher Jerome Harrison (127 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 1 TD) carried five times for 48 yards in the loss, and might begin to see the ball more frequently if he continues to succeed. Quinn was not sacked against the Broncos, and the Cleveland line has allowed just 11 sacks all year.
Putting some pressure on Quinn will be job number one for the Bills, but that will be easier said than done with Schobel again expected to be absent. Buffalo has just 14 sacks on the year, which ranks near the bottom of the league, and managed just one take-down of oft-sacked New England quarterback Matt Cassel last week. Marcus Stroud (26 tackles, 2.5 sacks) leads the Bills in sacks from his interior line position. The lack of a pass rush has had a trickle-down effect for a talented secondary that has nonetheless managed just four interceptions all year, with cornerbacks Jabari Greer (35 tackles, 2 INT) and Terrence McGee (32 tackles, 2 INT) accounting for those. The Bills have just two picks since the start of October. Safety Ko Simpson (41 tackles) has done most of his damage in run support for a team that is 14th in the league against the run (103.9 yards per game) as Week 11 begins, and linebackers Paul Posluzsny (67 tackles) and Kawika Mitchell (51 tackles, 2 INT) have been a factor in the front seven as well.
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
The struggles of the Buffalo offense can't all be placed at Edwards' feet, as a running game that has yet to produce a 100-yard rusher in 2008 also needs to be called onto the carpet. Marshawn Lynch (512 rushing yards, 6 TD, 27 receptions), who mustered just 46 yards on 14 carries last time out, is the primary component of a Bills running game that ranks just 28th in the league (90.0 yards per game). That situation is putting more pressure on Edwards (1845 passing yards, 7 TD, 7 INT), as well as a Buffalo receiving corps that is banged up heading into Monday. Slot man Josh Reed (26 receptions) will miss his third straight game with Achilles and ankle issues, and rookie James Hardy (9 receptions, 2 TD) is questionable with a hip problem. Lee Evans (37 receptions, 3 TD), who has been seeing regular double-teams, and running mate Roscoe Parrish (17 receptions, 1 TD) will have to pick up the slack. Evans has just six catches totaling 63 yards in his last two games combined. Tight end Robert Royal (25 receptions, 1 TD) has been another middle-of-the-field option for Edwards. The Buffalo offensive line, which has allowed 25 sacks through nine games, has seemed to regress in recent weeks.
Lynch should have a strong chance to get that first triple-digit game on Sunday, as two members of the Cleveland run-stopping group, nose tackle Shaun Rogers (neck) and end Corey Williams (shoulder), are regarded as questionable for the contest. Their absence would put pressure on players like much- maligned tackle Shaun Smith (11 tackles) and inside linebackers D'Qwell Jackson (88 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Andra Davis (41 tackles) to prop up a Browns defense that is just 26th against the run (145.2 yards per game) as Week 11 commences. The Cleveland pass defense has also had its struggles, as evidenced by Jay Cutler's 447-yard performance last week coupled with the fact that the Browns sacked Cutler just once in more than 40 drop-back attempts. That sack went to Kamerion Wimbley (36 tackles, 2 sacks), while fellow outside linebacker Willie McGinest (21 tackles) ranked among team leaders with seven tackles on the night. Safety Brodney Pool (34 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) had an interception in the loss, but cornerback Brandon McDonald (39 tackles, 1 INT) gave up a 93-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal and safety Sean Jones (31 tackles) struggled as well. No. 1 corner Eric Wright (36 tackles, 3 INT) is likely to be matched up with Evans on Monday.
FANTASY FOCUS
Quinn's performance against the Broncos might make him worth considering for fantasy owners desperate for QB help, but remember that his strong outing came against one of the worst defenses in the league. His numbers are bound to take a bit of a hit in Buffalo, though Winslow is still a must-start and Edwards figures to bounce back from an invisible showing against the Broncos. Lewis is not a great running back option due to his inconsistency and the fact that he rarely scores. Kicker Phil Dawson will probably help you on Monday, but the Cleveland defense should remain on the waiver wire.
On the Buffalo side, players like Edwards, Lynch, Evans, and Royal could be worth elevating from backup status due to the favorable matchup against a weak Cleveland "D". Kicker Rian Lindell is also worthy of starting status, but a Bills defense that doesn't make many big plays is not.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
It wasn't so long ago that the Bills looked to be on a collision course with the playoffs, but three straight division losses have abruptly dropped Jauron and company to the bottom of the AFC East power poll. Whether Buffalo can collect itself and make another push toward the postseason is debatable, but what is not is that a desperate team should play with a great deal of intensity on Monday night in order to get back into the win column. Meanwhile, intensity has hardly been the Browns' forte this season, and the team's extreme long shot status in the playoff chase does not figure to light a fire under a team with a questionable attitude and character to begin with. Cleveland is talented enough to keep it close, but will fade in the fourth quarter much like last week.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bills 19, Browns 16
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It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers SPORTS TRASH TALK
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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