11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of combatants seeking to improve their standing in the NFC postseason race will meet at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the Minnesota Vikings.
The homestanding Bucs enter Week 11 at 6-3 and just a game back of 7-2 Carolina in the NFC South, with a 27-3 rout of the Panthers in Week 6 already in their hip pocket. Jon Gruden's squad also defeated fellow 6-3 NFC South compatriot Atlanta in Week 2, making Tampa Bay 2-1 in a division that figures to be subject to a tie-breaker or two when all is said and done.
Also in the file marked "positive" for the Buccaneers is that they enter the contest with the Vikings as a fresh, well-rested group, having enjoyed a well- deserved Week 10 bye. Prior to the open date, Tampa Bay pulled off the biggest comeback in franchise history when they erased a 24-3 deficit to defeat the pesky Kansas City Chiefs, 30-27 in overtime.
Down 27-19 and possessing no timeouts with less than two minutes to play in that contest, quarterback Jeff Garcia engineered a five-play, 50-yard drive culminating with a 24-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Bryant with just 19 seconds left.
Needing a two-point conversion to send the game to overtime, Garcia hit tight end Alex Smith in a crowd to tie the game at 27, then embarked on a nine-play, 58-yard drive ending with a 34-yard Matt Bryant field goal in overtime to seal the win.
Also entering Week 11 on a high note is Minnesota, which outlasted Green Bay, 28-27, in a thriller at the Metrodome last Sunday.
Running back Adrian Peterson rushed 30 times for 192 yards in the victory, placing the Vikes ahead to stay with a 29-yard touchdown run with 2:22 to play.
Peterson's performance helped overshadow a three-interception day from struggling quarterback Gus Frerotte, as did the work of a defense which allowed just 184 net yards, recorded a pair of safeties, and sacked Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers four times on the day.
The win, which snapped a five-game losing streak for the Vikings to the arch rival Packers, coupled with a loss for the Bears, placed Brad Childress' squad in a tie for first place in the NFC North.
SERIES HISTORY
Minnesota has a 31-19 edge in its all-time series with Tampa Bay, but has lost three of the last four such games dating back to 2001. The Buccaneers were 24-13 road winners when the clubs last met, in the 2005 season-opener, and took a 38-24 decision when they last met in Tampa, in 2002. Minnesota last beat the Bucs in 2001, at home, and is 0-5 in Tampa Bay since last winning there in 1997.
The Vikings and Buccaneers met twice a year as member of the NFC Central from 1978 through 2001.
Gruden is 3-0 all-time against the Vikings, including a 22-17 road victory as leader of the Oakland Raiders in 1999. Minnesota's Childress will be meeting both Gruden and the Bucs for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
Peterson (1015 rushing yards, 7 TD, 15 receptions) leads the NFL in rushing yards after his dazzling performance against the Packers, but wasn't the only Minnesota running back to help fuel the win with a strong offensive display. Chester Taylor (211 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 2 TD) led the Vikes with 84 receiving yards on four catches, with his 47-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter staking Minnesota to a 21-10 lead. Taylor added 29 yards on 10 carries in the contest. For his part, Peterson has now gone over 100 yards in four straight games, and has progressively run for more yards in each game of the run. The ground attack has helped mitigate the struggles of Frerotte (1619 passing yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) and the team's passing game. Frerotte threw TD passes to Taylor and wideout Sidney Rice (5 receptions, 3 TD), but also threw three interceptions and completed only four tosses to wide receivers all day, including three to Bobby Wade (36 receptions). No. 1 wideout Bernard Berrian (30 receptions, 4 TD) did not have a single catch in the win after scoring touchdowns in each of his previous four outings. Frerotte has seven TD passes versus eight picks in his last three games. The Minnesota line has surrendered 23 sacks on the year.
The tallest task for Monte Kiffin's defense will be slowing the dynamic Peterson, and a group that ranks a decent 11th against the run (99.3 yards per game) and has allowed a league-low-tying one rushing touchdown all year has a chance to get that done. Linebackers Barrett Ruud (71 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and Derrick Brooks (38 tackles, 1 INT) have been active against the run all season, and tackles Chris Hovan (27 tackles) and Jimmy Wilkerson (11 tackles, 1 sack) have been solid at the point of attack. When Frerotte throws it, he'll have to beware of a secondary that has accounted for seven of the Buccaneers' 12 interceptions, including a team-best three from rookie d-back Aqib Talib (10 tackles). Veteran corner Ronde Barber (38 tackles, 1 sack) is likely to be matched up on Berrian. The Buccaneers pass rush most prominently features second-year end Gaines Adams (23 tackles), who has a pair of interceptions (including one for a touchdown) to go with his team-leading four sacks. The Bucs are fifth in the league against the pass (190.1 yards per game).
WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL
The big story for Tampa Bay this week is the expected return of Cadillac Williams, who could play for the first time since suffering a serious knee injury last September. The former first-round pick could see extended time with No. 1 rusher Earnest Graham (560 rushing yards, 4 TD, 23 receptions) listed as questionable with a knee problem. Garcia (1363 passing yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) has not experienced a career year by any stretch of the imagination, but Tampa Bay's Week 9 win at the Chiefs reminded a lot of people why the veteran journeyman is so valuable. Garcia threw for a season-high 339 yards on 31-of-43 passing in the win, and it was his aerial ability that allowed the Chiefs to erase an 11-point deficit entering the fourth quarter. Bryant (45 receptions, 2 TD) has been re-born as Garcia's top target, as his eight-catch, 115-yard effort in Kansas City was his second 100-yard game in his last three. No. 2 receiver Ike Hilliard (33 receptions, 3 TD) has also been solid, and tight ends Smith (19 receptions, 3 TD), Jerramy Stevens (15 receptions, 1 TD) and John Gilmore (11 receptions, 1 TD) have been frequent targets over the middle. The Bucs line has allowed just 10 sacks through the first nine games.
Any discussion of the Vikings defense has to begin with the front four, which still boasts run-stuffing tackles Pat Williams (30 tackles) and Kevin Williams (39 tackles, 7 sacks) on the interior and menacing end Jared Allen (27 tackles, 8 sacks) complementing them. Kevin Williams notched six tackles and a forced fumble against the Packers last week, while Allen battled through a shoulder injury to play a part in both Green Bay safeties. Linebacker and leading Vikings tackler Chad Greenway (66 tackles, 3 sacks) has also been a difference-maker against the run, helping Minnesota to a current rank of third in NFL rushing defense (70.1 yards per game). Pass coverage remains the Vikings' defensive Achilles' heel, as the team is just 19th against the pass (219.2 yards per game), but the addition of safety Madieu Williams to the mix has had a positive impact on a team that already had cornerback Antoine Winfield (45 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and safety Darren Sharper (32 tackles) to hang its hat on. Williams has 14 tackles and a pick in just two games played with Minnesota after missing the first seven with a neck injury.
FANTASY FOCUS
Peterson carried many fantasy teams to victory last week, but it would be astonishing if he approaches those kind of numbers against a very good Tampa Bay front seven. He remains a must-start, but don't look for him to carry your team. In addition, don't look for Taylor's big all-purpose day last week fool you into thinking he's consistent. Berrian has better starting potential. Kicker Ryan Longwell remains a reliable starting option, and the Minnesota defense is worth considering if only because of the pressure it has put on the quarterback in recent weeks.
The cloudy running back picture and the Vikings' generally strong work against the run means you'll have to leave all of the Tampa Bay backs on the bench this week. However, Garcia and top wideout Bryant should emerge as better starting options than usual. The Buccaneers defense should have its moments, and is worth using, and kicker Matt Bryant doesn't have a 50-plus leg but will get you some points.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Vikings have been a horrible road team this season, with their only win away from the Metrodome a gift-wrapped 30-27 affair against the Saints back in Week 5. Though Minnesota has talent and is capable of putting together a complete performance, doing so on the road against a quality Tampa Bay team that has defended its home field extremely well this season looks like a stretch. Minnesota doesn't match up well with Tampa Bay, since its pressure isn't likely to rattle the mobile Garcia and Peterson and the running game don't figure to gash a very sound Tampa run-stopping group. No team has come within a score of the Bucs at Raymond James this season, and the Vikings won't be the first.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Buccaneers 28, Vikings 12
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.
They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.
"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."
Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smithand Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.
New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason at a sportsbook, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.
Not so sound on the ground
If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.
Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game. Sports Betting lines on the game can be found at BettingExpress.com
“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.
Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.
Brees says bring it on
Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees. This internet Sportsbooks had the Saints as the favorites.
Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2007-2007 championship.
Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bearsin the NFC Championship game.
"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."
SportsBooks ready for a shootout
Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. online Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.
“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”
New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.
The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.
“Yards are great,” running backDeuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”
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